TechFlow, July 3 — According to Jinshi Data, Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists believe that the upcoming July 9 tariff negotiation deadline could be an "irrelevant event" for G10 currencies. Regarding the EU, Citigroup's base case is that both sides will reach a framework agreement before July 9, extending the 10% tariff rate while negotiations continue. "Given the recent strength of the euro, they speculate such news would be slightly positive for the euro, but not necessarily a major driver, as much of the good news has already been priced in." On Japan, Citigroup believes the likelihood of an agreement is decreasing due to Trump's recent comments. The bank stated, "The risk of higher tariffs on Japan appears highest." It expects USD/JPY to rise to 150 this summer, then fall below 140 later this year as the Bank of Japan moves toward policy normalization and the yen regains strength.
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