TechFlow news, on July 3, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that Bitcoin's recent surge from $105,200 to $109,500 was primarily driven by significantly increased activity in the derivatives market: open interest (OI) across major futures exchanges surged by 10%, reaching a total of $3.2 billion, indicating substantial new capital inflows into the market. This growth has been mainly fueled by long positions, reflecting investor optimism about Bitcoin’s future upside and a recovering market momentum.
Meanwhile, the latest "small non-farm" ADP employment data unexpectedly declined (-33,000), further boosting market expectations for an FOMC rate cut. The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 27.4%. More importantly, the market widely anticipates Fed action in September, with a 25-basis-point rate cut priced in at 64%–72%, and even a 50-basis-point cut cannot be ruled out.
Despite the loosening macro environment, Bitcoin’s current price movement remains range-bound and consolidative. The Put/Call ratio in the options market has risen to 0.72, with key support forming at $104,000 and strong near-term resistance at $114,000. On-chain capital flows remain stable, suggesting that major players are still awaiting this week’s upcoming non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims data. Structurally, the market is now pricing in two potential scenarios: if labor market weakness persists, a September rate cut could trigger a new upward leg for Bitcoin; conversely, a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll may break support at $104,000, prompting a technical correction.
Overall, amid converging macro policy shifts and technical signals, Bitcoin is entering a sensitive phase marked by directional uncertainty and potentially amplified volatility.
