TechFlow, July 2 - Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more dovish stance, four market scenarios could emerge: pure dovish policy shock, declining growth expectations, dovish policy coexisting with slowing growth, and dovish policy accompanying rising growth. Analysis shows that falling U.S. Treasury yields, strength in euro/yen/swiss franc, and gold gains are the most consistent trends across scenarios, while U.S. equity performance heavily depends on growth outlook. The "dovish + rising growth" scenario is most favorable for risk assets, but worsening summer labor and inflation data could reignite growth concerns. Markets have begun pricing in Fed easing, but future trajectories will highly depend on incoming economic data.
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