TechFlow, June 12 — According to Jinshi Data, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated that in the coming months, we expect to see a round of price increases in the United States. However, unlike 2021–2022, this round of price hikes will be more structural and one-off in nature, rather than broad-based inflation. For the Federal Reserve, the mild inflation data is good news, but officials are unlikely to make major policy decisions based on just one month's data. Given the current stability in the labor market, the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts and may prefer to wait for several more data points before deciding. Next week, the Federal Reserve will hold its June monetary policy meeting. We believe that compared to the March dot plot issued before the "reciprocal tariffs" emerged, the June FOMC may slightly raise its inflation forecast. However, due to resilient non-farm payrolls and easing tariff tensions, the Fed's outlook on economic growth could be more optimistic than in March. As a result, Chair Powell's tone at this meeting may lean hawkish, potentially disappointing investors hoping for Fed rate cuts.
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