TechFlow news, on June 10, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that this week's May CPI data and the $22 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction could become key turning points for the future direction of the crypto market. On inflation, the market expects core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and increase year-on-year to 2.9%. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may weaken rate cut expectations in September and trigger asset price volatility. Regarding the bond market, demand for long-term bonds is under pressure due to widening fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty, raising concerns about weak subscription. Currently, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries remains high at 4.94%; if the auction performs poorly, it could exacerbate liquidity tightening and weigh on risk assets.
Chloe noted that the options market is currently sending defensive signals, with Bitcoin options implied volatility rising to 48% and the Put/Call ratio increasing to 0.68, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. In particular, BTC put options expiring on June 14 with a strike price of $105,000 have seen active trading, becoming a short-term market focus. On-chain data shows the crypto market has "strong internals but loose externals": the proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders' "realized market cap" has risen to 0.45, reflecting stable accumulation at the bottom. However, on-chain active addresses are decreasing and marginal liquidity is weakening, meaning market direction still awaits clearer macro signals.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
