TechFlow news, May 29 — According to Jinshi Data, the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicated that the benchmark policy path implied by option prices (representing mainstream market expectations) shifted slightly downward during this period, suggesting one to two rate cuts (25 basis points each) by year-end—only slightly more than expectations at the March FOMC meeting. The probability distribution of year-end interest rates implied by options has shifted leftward, with downside risks significantly increasing. As markets perceive heightened downside risks for policy rates, the expected policy path implied by futures markets has declined more sharply, indicating approximately three rate cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, survey-based market expectations show little change in the median benchmark rate path, still pointing to two to three rate cuts this year. However, the survey noted that respondents' divergence over the most likely policy path is widening.
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