TechFlow, May 13 — According to Jinshi Data, a CICC research report stated that if tariffs are further downgraded, the Federal Reserve might have room to cut interest rates. Currently, growth pressures have not materialized; April's nonfarm payrolls remain strong, and both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs continue to show resilience. Even if the Fed wanted to take preventive action, there is insufficient justification—let alone the fact that Powell’s term ends in May next year, making premature moves highly risky. Therefore, in balancing the "dilemma" between inflation and growth, the Fed is more likely to stay on hold rather than act "preemptively." However, if tariff risks subside further down the line, the Fed could have an opportunity to cut rates in the third or fourth quarter to alleviate potential growth pressures at that time.
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