TechFlow news, April 7 — According to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, stating that the risk of further policy easing by the Fed is higher if a recession hits. Goldman now expects the Fed to begin a series of rate cuts in June—earlier than its previous forecast of July—as part of a preemptive easing cycle. Under the baseline scenario in which the U.S. avoids a recession, the Fed would carry out three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman anticipates that if the economy does fall into recession, the Fed will respond more aggressively, cutting rates by approximately 200 basis points through next year. Given the increased likelihood of a recession, the firm’s current weighted forecast indicates a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, up from the previous 105 basis points. As of last Friday’s close, this outlook aligns closely with current market expectations.
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