TechFlow news, April 4 — Coindesk analysts noted that bitcoin bulls could emerge victorious following the upcoming employment report, regardless of whether data shows strength or weakness in the labor market.
This scenario stems from President Trump's announcement on Wednesday of sweeping tariffs on 180 countries, prompting forward-looking markets to price in risks of economic recession and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Stronger-than-expected employment data typically lifts the dollar and pressures risk assets like bitcoin, but such data may be viewed as outdated, overlooking recent developments driven by Trump's policies. As a result, any post-NFP dip in bitcoin could quickly reverse into upward momentum.
Conversely, weak data would further amplify recession fears, strengthen bets on Fed rate cuts, and trigger a fresh wave of risk-taking across financial markets.
Despite uncertainty around tariff peaks, prices remain well above March’s low of $77,000, suggesting exhausted sellers and upside potential. Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index for bitcoin stands at an annualized 65%, indicating an expected price move of 3.4% within the next 24 hours.
The employment data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. According to FactSet, the median estimate for March’s nonfarm payrolls is 130,000, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.
