TechFlow news, April 2 — As Trump's tariff policy approaches, analysts broadly express concerns over economic slowdown and inflation risks. Jinshi Data has compiled views from several analysts and economists as follows:
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Ethan Harris, former head of economic research at Bank of America: Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" is likely just one more step in an ongoing trade war. It's unlikely to bring the clarity that investors, businesses, and households desire. Even if the trade war ends, the U.S. economy will still weaken due to other policy areas such as government spending cuts and employment reductions.
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Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis: The fact is, market sentiment has been dampened, and positioning remains quite light. I don't think we’ll get the kind of clarity that investors and business leaders want. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing tariffs, but more importantly, we’re facing an economy that isn’t operating at full capacity. Investors are waiting and watching, ready to act when the moment comes.
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Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone: We're approaching Trump’s shining moment. Many have already deleveraged and are staying flat or neutral on equities, the dollar, and U.S. Treasuries. While theoretically, a 20% across-the-board tariff rate would be seen as a net positive for the dollar, the market’s primary focus is whether tariffs will accelerate the risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy.
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Vasu Menon, executive director of investment strategy at OCBC Bank in Singapore: Trump calls April 2 "Liberation Day," but investors are unlikely to truly find relief from tariff uncertainty. If other countries retaliate, Trump may raise the stakes—this possibility could continue to unsettle investors.
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Jim Reid, analyst at Deutsche Bank: Trump will announce high tariffs, and other countries may respond with retaliatory measures, a prospect that intensifies inflation concerns. A major investor worry is that U.S. tariffs will trigger retaliatory actions, which in turn could lead to further escalation as the U.S. seeks to respond.
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Wells Fargo economists: Preemptive "vaccination" measures ahead of tariffs and efforts to reduce import risks have driven up the manufacturing price index. Ongoing uncertainty continues to suppress underlying demand, leaving manufacturers eager to learn the specific details of tariff plans.
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Carol Kong, FX strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Markets will remain nervous ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Market sentiment will be influenced by further tariff-related news, which in turn will drive exchange rate movements ahead of major announcements.
