TechFlow reports on March 26 that according to Jinshi News, Bitcoin's rebound to a two-week high earlier this week now faces the risk of stalling—this volume-deficient rally is increasingly exhibiting characteristics of a "bull trap" amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on market sentiment.
Weak bullish momentum, continuously shrinking trading volumes, and lingering macro tensions are collectively creating a potential bull trap within a "directionless market." Market experts point out that looming tariff escalations, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks continue to suppress Bitcoin’s price.
Kirill Kretov, a trading expert at CoinPanel, an automated cryptocurrency trading platform, warned: "Investors need to be especially cautious in the current environment—the market remains fragile and highly manipulable. Retail activity is weak, trading volume is thin, and even so-called 'smart money' is standing on the sidelines. The fact that real market-moving forces are choosing to stay inactive is no coincidence."
Augustine Fan, partner at SignalPlus, a crypto derivatives software provider, said clarity on market direction may only emerge after the key policy event on April 2: "We expect the soft rebound to extend through month-end. The next major catalyst will be the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement." As the Trump administration plans to unveil new tariffs on that day, macro policy uncertainty could once again become the spark that disrupts equilibrium in the crypto markets.
A key indicator of cautious sentiment is Bitcoin’s funding rate—the metric reflecting the price difference between spot and futures markets. According to CryptoQuant data, despite Bitcoin rising to $88,786 earlier this week, its funding rate has turned negative. This suggests traders are unwilling to pay a premium to open new long positions in perpetual contracts, signaling cooling leveraged demand.
Another sign of weakening confidence comes from decentralized lending platform Aave: borrowing costs for stablecoins such as USDT and USDC have dropped to around 4%, indicating that risk-off sentiment is spreading into the crypto space. Strahinja Savic, Head of Data and Analytics at FRNT Financial, explained: "Aave’s lending rates are driven by asset utilization among deposits. As leveraged demand and other borrowing-dependent trading strategies decline, rates naturally fall."
