TechFlow news, March 21 — According to CoinDesk, data scientist Alex McCullough's research shows that prediction market Polymarket achieves a 90% accuracy rate when forecasting events one month in advance, and as high as 94% accuracy within four hours before an event occurs.
McCullough analyzed Polymarket’s historical data and found that, after removing extreme probability values, the platform consistently but slightly overestimates the likelihood of events across most probability ranges. This may be influenced by factors such as herd behavior, low liquidity, and participants’ preference for high-risk bets.
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