TechFlow news, on March 21, according to Jinshi Data, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported a slight increase in retail investor optimism regarding the stock market outlook for the next six months in its latest weekly survey, though sentiment remains below historical averages—the tenth time in the past 12 weeks.
Bullish sentiment rose from last week's 19.1% to 21.6%, still significantly below the historical average of 37.5%. Bearish sentiment declined from 59.2% to 58.1%, which remains well above the historical average of 31.0% recorded in the 16th week of 2018. The remaining respondents held neutral views on the stock market outlook. This latest AAII survey marks the first time since the late 1980s that the proportion of individual investors expressing bearish sentiment has remained above 57% for four consecutive weeks.
When asked about the likelihood of a recession, nearly three-quarters of respondents said a recession this year is either likely or more than likely—50.4% indicated the probability of an economic contraction was "higher than usual," while another 21.7% said a recession was "very likely." Less than one-fifth (18%) believed the likelihood of a recession was neither higher nor lower than expected, and only 9.7% thought a downturn was unlikely.
