TechFlow news, March 17 — According to Jinshi Data, a recent institutional survey shows analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates twice more this year, but no longer anticipate rates falling below 2%.
The monthly survey indicates that after six rate cuts so far, further reductions remain possible in April and June. However, unlike in the previous round of surveys, respondents now expect the deposit facility rate—currently at 2.5%—to stabilize at 2% by the end of the forecast period.
In mid-February, a narrow majority had expected the ECB to ultimately lower rates to 1.75% by March 2026. Meanwhile, European governments plan substantial increases in defense spending, which could boost sluggish economic growth and exacerbate inflation.
Besides military expenditures, Germany intends to spend hundreds of billions more euros to modernize its aging infrastructure. Deutsche Bank economist Marco Wagner said such spending "will add upward pressure on inflation by the end of 2026."
