TechFlow news, on March 12, according to Jinshi News, Alec Kersman, Managing Director and Head of Asia-Pacific at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), said that due to U.S. tariff measures, the likelihood of the United States falling into a recession this year has increased, with his estimated probability reaching 35%. This figure is higher than PIMCO's previous assessment of 15% in December last year.
Nevertheless, PIMCO's base-case forecast for the U.S. economy remains growth between 1% and 1.5%, although it has been "significantly downgraded" from earlier expectations. Kamal Bhatia, President and CEO of Principal Asset Management, said such trade policies would boost domestic consumption and help the U.S. economy grow above expectations. Consumer spending on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP.
Bhatia stated that increased domestic spending triggered by tariffs makes it "highly likely" that U.S. GDP will "outperform expectations."
