TechFlow news — On March 11, according to Jinshi News, institutional analysis indicates the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting next week. However, if recession concerns triggered by trade wars intensify and materialize, the Fed could begin a series of rapid rate cuts starting in June. At least in the futures market, an increasing number of contracts are now betting on 25-basis-point rate cuts in June, July, and October. This trend emerged after U.S. President Trump's remarks over the weekend regarding a "transition period," as he imposed tariffs on multiple countries. Amid fears that his comments signal an impending economic downturn, U.S. stocks and Treasury yields declined on Monday.
"While things may appear calm on the surface, if both the labor market and financial markets start deteriorating before the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs and the broader Trump agenda on inflation, policymakers will grow increasingly concerned about rising risks to their dual mandate and their ability to resist President Trump’s pressure to lower rates," wrote Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, in a note. "A slow-responding Fed would invite anger from the Trump administration."
