TechFlow news, January 30 — According to a recent research report by Glassnode, the current Bitcoin bull market shows multiple structural similarities with the 2015–2018 cycle. The report's key findings are as follows:
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Regarding cyclical similarity and pullback characteristics, the current Bitcoin bull market exhibits significant structural parallels with the 2015–2018 cycle. Pullback magnitudes have primarily remained within the Fibonacci range of 10.1% to 23.6%. This stable pullback pattern may reflect strong underlying demand support in the current market.
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In terms of real market value growth trend, the realized capitalization (Realized Cap) in this cycle has increased 2.1-fold—lower than the previous cycle’s peak of 5.7-fold, but consistent with the 2015–2018 cycle at a comparable stage. The market has not yet entered an exponential growth phase, suggesting potential for further expansion.
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Concerning the scale of capital rotation, since December 2023, approximately 1.2 million bitcoins have moved from long-term holders to short-term holders. Of these, 1.1 million BTC were transferred when prices exceeded $90,000, indicating substantial demand absorption at price levels above $90,000 to offset this supply influx.
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Regarding exchange balance changes, exchange balances have declined from 3.1 million BTC in July 2024 to 2.7 million BTC. However, this decrease is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets rather than massive withdrawals by retail investors. The combined balances of exchanges and ETFs remain around 3 million BTC, indicating a shift in market structure rather than a supply shortage.
