TechFlow news, January 13 — According to Jinshi News, Wall Street research firm BCA Research's latest report指出 that Trump's return to the White House in 2025 could trigger four "black swan" events.
First, Trump may reach a new nuclear deal with Iran, easing global oil supply concerns, but BCA still estimates a 75% probability of U.S.-Iran military conflict in 2025. Second, Trump could undermine U.S. commitment to NATO, triggering a fall in the euro and rising risk premiums on Eastern European assets. Third, the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border may escalate—military action by the U.S. would spark a security crisis, while a tariff war could drive up inflation. Lastly, countries may jointly intervene in currency markets to counter U.S. tariff threats, leading to a sharp depreciation of the dollar.
BCA is one of the most bearish firms on Wall Street. In prior reports, the company reaffirmed its recession forecast and projected that U.S. stocks could plummet as much as 26% this year.
