TechFlow news, January 8 — According to CoinDesk, the MOVE Index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate), a key volatility indicator for the U.S. Treasury market, has been steadily rising since hitting a low of 82 points in mid-December and reached 102.78 on January 8, signaling a shift in critical market dynamics. As the second-largest financial market globally, heightened Treasury market volatility often indicates tightening financial conditions and may trigger risk-off sentiment across various financial markets.
Latest data shows manufacturing performance exceeded expectations, suggesting strong economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, driving yields across U.S. Treasuries higher. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92%—the highest since November 23—while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.68%, the highest level since May.
Market observers note that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are currently exhibiting a "head and shoulders" pattern, a technical formation that aligns with the trajectory of the MOVE Index. After Donald Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE Index sharply declined, fueling broad gains in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began weakening when the MOVE Index hit its bottom in mid-December. On January 8, Bitcoin dropped 5% to $96,900, while the S&P 500 fell over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is now leading broader market trends, and risk assets are unlikely to regain upward momentum until the Treasury market stabilizes.
