TechFlow news, on December 16, the latest Bitfinex Alpha report stated that Bitcoin has surged over 573% from the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, with a year-to-date increase of 130%. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, driven by ETFs and spot accumulation. Historical data suggests we are now in the mid-cycle following the April 2024 halving, with the market potentially peaking around the third or fourth quarter of 2025—approximately 450 days post-halving.
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle metrics indicate that we remain in a bull market phase but are far from reaching its peak. Pi Cycle Top and 4-year moving average models project a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive BTC growth observed in previous cycles. The report suggests that any corrections in 2025 will likely remain mild due to institutional capital inflows; historically, the years following a halving have seen the strongest rebounds. Cycle targets: by mid-2025, the minimum price estimate is $145,000, which could rise to $200,000 under favorable conditions.
