TechFlow news — On November 11, according to CrowdFund Insider, cryptocurrency investment firm HashKey Capital recently released a research report analyzing the historical performance of altcoins following peaks in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D). The report shows that since 2016, in four instances when Bitcoin reached new cycle highs, the altcoin index outperformed Bitcoin during the three months leading up to each peak, with the sole exception occurring in the second quarter of 2016.
From a static perspective, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) may need to reach 62%-70% to trigger an altcoin season. Currently, BTC.D stands at approximately 57%, implying Bitcoin's market cap would need to grow by about $280 billion. Based on the 62%-70% range, this suggests Bitcoin’s price would need to exceed $76,000 (at the time of writing, BTC has already surpassed $81,000). To reach a 70% BTC.D, the price would need to hit $108,000, with an average estimate around $92,000.
HashKey Capital believes that as U.S. monetary easing policies extend into next year, major altcoins offering higher staking yields—such as ETH and SOL—could benefit. Additionally, staking protocols (e.g., STETH) and delta-neutral DeFi protocols (e.g., ENA) are expected to gain from increased yield-seeking activity in a low-interest-rate environment.
However, the report also warns of risks facing altcoins in this current cycle. Over the coming years, a total of $155 billion worth of tokens are set to unlock, which could decouple altcoin price movements from Bitcoin, as incoming capital may struggle to absorb the growing supply. Therefore, identifying altcoin assets with strong fundamentals and technicals is more critical than ever.
The report further analyzes the relationship between rising Bitcoin prices and ETFs, noting that if crypto-native funds drive the market rally, capital may shift from Bitcoin into altcoins. However, if ETFs lead the market,资金 are more likely to flow into other crypto-related equities rather than directly into altcoins.
