TechFlow news, November 8 — According to Jinshi Data, investors in certain asset classes are gradually cooling their enthusiasm for the "Trump trade," as they question whether Trump, if re-elected U.S. president, would actually push forward his ambitious tariff proposals. By Thursday’s close, the dollar had erased most of its post-election gains, while U.S. Treasury yields, after two days of sharp volatility, had returned to their recent range. These moves suggest market turbulence as investors assess whether Trump’s actual policies would align with his campaign promises. As market turbulence subsides, attention is shifting toward other major events.
"Even the most ardent 'Trump trade' investors are now stepping back and questioning whether the bet has become too aggressive at this point," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. "Traders are now pondering implementation and how effectively some of his policies could be rolled out."
A key question on investors’ minds is how much of Trump’s proposed tariff measures will actually materialize. Some investors are also taking profits, including on long-dollar and short-Treasury positions that performed strongly earlier this week amid expectations that Trump’s policies would fuel inflation and keep interest rates elevated.
"There is skepticism about whether Trump will truly execute the policies he proposes, especially on tariffs. However, this sentiment may be temporary, as markets could be underestimating Trump’s influence on trade policy—the U.S. president holds broad authority to impose import tariffs," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
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