TechFlow news — On November 3, according to The Block, ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, all major prediction markets continue to assign former President Trump higher odds of winning than Vice President Harris. However, data from ElectionBettingOdds.com shows that over the past week, Trump’s average implied probability of victory across prediction markets has dropped by 3.8%.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump’s odds have fallen more than 10% from their historical highs. At the time of writing, Trump’s odds on Polymarket had declined to 59.1%, down from a peak of 71.5% on July 16. His odds on Kalshi have dropped from a high of 65.2% on October 29 to 55% currently (Kalshi’s prediction market launched on October 4).
On Saturday, Trump’s win probability on Polymarket briefly dipped to 57.1%—a 15-percentage-point lead for Harris at 42.8%—before slightly recovering. Election watchers are closely monitoring early voting results and late-stage polls, including one indicating that after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s remarks at Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden last week, Harris gained a significant lead among Puerto Ricans in Florida.
On Polymarket, Harris also holds leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, two swing states considered crucial to securing victory. The prediction market posted on X, “Harris is gaining ground.”
