TechFlow reported, QCP released its weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly higher than expected (year-over-year increase of 2.7% versus an expected 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data unexpectedly fell short of expectations (actual: 12K vs. expected: 110K), causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to rebound and return to the 104 level.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high on Tuesday night, peaking at 73.6k, driven by market anticipation around election week. Despite Bitcoin's strong performance this week, Ethereum remained relatively flat, failing to break through the 2.7k mark. Amid robust ETF inflows, Bitcoin saw over $2.1 billion in net inflows this week.
Although Bitcoin dropped below $69,000 on Friday, we continue to see strong market interest, with total open interest in BTC futures and BTC options remaining elevated at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively. Ahead of the upcoming election week, short-term implied volatility for both BTC and ETH remains above the 72 volatility level, while put option skew continues to rise as traders increase downside protection.
While Trump remains the favorite to become the next U.S. president, his odds on Polymarket have declined from a peak of 66% to 57%, with Harris now at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the election will trigger a "sell the news" reaction, similar to what followed the Bitcoin conference in Nashville.
