TechFlow News, October 26 — Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo posted on social platform X, stating that after analyzing the performance of over 10,000 altcoins, he found the crypto market is currently undergoing its third distinct cycle since 2017, exhibiting characteristics entirely different from previous cycles. The first cycle began in 2017, when altcoins entered mainstream awareness for the first time, leading to significant losses among retail investors. The second cycle occurred between 2020 and 2021, driven by waves of innovation in DeFi and NFTs, which again resulted in widespread retail losses.
The current third cycle is dominated by meme coins. "Unlike the prior two cycles, meme coins do not pretend to be revolutionary world-changing technologies; instead, they openly reveal their speculative nature," Woo noted. "This may suggest that retail investors are finally beginning to understand the risks involved—after all, it usually takes three lessons for people to truly learn."
Regarding Bitcoin's dominance, Woo believes the market is still searching for a long-term equilibrium. He explained that although smaller-cap altcoins will still rally following Bitcoin’s price increases, the intensity of these "altcoin seasons" may weaken with each successive cycle. He particularly warned investors about biases in altcoin market cap calculations, noting that this metric only reflects the combined value of successful projects while excluding failed ones.
For investment advice, Woo cautioned investors never to hold altcoins unless they have insider-level knowledge. "It's fine to trade if you want exposure, but unless you truly understand how things operate behind the scenes, never hold altcoins long-term. This is essentially an insider's game—like a casino—where the house always wins in the end."
