TechFlow news, October 24 — According to Jinshi Data, with less than two weeks remaining before the U.S. election, Barclays released a new research report indicating that European equities have already priced in the prospect of a Trump victory. The report shows that since early spring this year, a basket of European exporter stocks has underperformed the Stoxx Europe 600 Index by 15%. Barclays' analyst team believes this reflects investors positioning themselves in anticipation of Trump's proposed tariff policies—a central theme of his campaign—suggesting market expectations of a Trump win.
For U.S. markets, Barclays estimates that Trump’s tariff policies could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by 3.2% in 2025, with the materials, consumer discretionary, industrial, technology, and healthcare sectors facing the greatest impact. Additionally, retaliatory measures from other countries could further negatively affect future S&P 500 earnings per share by an additional 1.5%.
The report also notes that if Harris wins, European markets may rebound. Her policy agenda could boost growth in clean energy and renewable energy sectors across the region—areas that are currently underperforming due to heightened odds of a Trump victory.
