TechFlow news, on October 21, former President Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 percentage points on Polymarket, sparking concerns of manipulation. Tarek Mansour, founder of the Kalshi prediction market, recently argued that these results are accurate and not the result of artificial manipulation, citing comparable data from Kalshi.
Tarek Mansour first dismissed claims that a small number of large bettors are skewing odds in favor of Trump. "The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump," with the median bet on Harris at $85 compared to $58 for Trump.
The founder also explained that an increasing number of individuals on the Kalshi platform are betting on Trump, and Polymarket's 20-point lead aligns roughly with the number of people on Kalshi who are betting that Trump will win the November election.
