TechFlow news, on July 5, according to Jinshi Data, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. This figure has increased by 0.22% since March (3.83%). According to the Sahm Rule, the three-month average of the unemployment rate is 0.42% higher than its 12-month low, approaching the threshold of 0.5%. The Sahm Rule indicates that the economy enters a recession when the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low.
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