TechFlow reports, Adam, macro researcher at Greeks.live, summarized the options expiration data for May 17.
18,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, maximum pain point at $63,000, and notional value of $1.2 billion.
320,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, maximum pain point at $3,000, and notional value of $930 million.
This week, driven by the meme stock rally in U.S. equities, BTC ETFs saw significant capital inflows, pushing BTC sharply higher above $65,000. However, the broader crypto market outside memes remained weak, with trading volume continuing to decline—this divergence is reflected in the options data for BTC and ETH. From block trades and market structure perspectives, the declining trend in IV across major tenors has ended and entered consolidation, suggesting limited downside room currently.
BTC positioning is relatively balanced, while ETH’s weak price performance has steadily eroded market confidence, making short calls the dominant trade. At current IV levels, the seller's edge is mediocre, so timing long entries would be a better approach. More emphasis is recommended on trading the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
