TechFlow news, according to Jinshi reports, key points from Powell's speech are as follows:
- Interest rate outlook: Reiterated that rates may remain high for a longer period; does not see the next move as likely to be a rate hike, and is more inclined to keep policy rates at current levels.
- Inflation outlook: Confidence in declining inflation is lower than before; the lack of further progress on inflation in the U.S. first quarter is notable; expects inflation to decline on a month-over-month basis.
- Economic outlook: The U.S. economy is performing very well with a very strong labor market; GDP is still expected to grow at 2% or higher, supported by new labor force participation.
- Market reaction: Since the start of Powell's speech, gold has remained largely flat, rising as high as $2,356.72; U.S. stock markets saw a general "V"-shaped movement across the three major indices.
- Latest expectations: Currently expecting the Fed to cumulatively cut rates by 40 bps this year; probabilities of rate cuts in June and September remain stable around 50%, consistent with pre-speech levels.
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