TechFlow news — Flood@ThinkingUSD, a renowned crypto OG and top trader at BitMEX, has released 12 predictions for 2024, including:
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Bybit is poised to become the exchange with the highest trading volume in the short term;
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Blackrock's ETF will be approved, exceeding expectations in trading volume (5B+ ADV), potentially driving the market to new highs and impacting large crypto OTC trades.
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DEX market share growth will fall short of expectations, and perpetual DEXs may face regulatory enforcement actions.
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Ethereum lags behind in assets, with the ETH-to-BTC ratio reaching 0.04 or lower, possibly signaling a market bottom. On-chain transaction volume on Ethereum continues to decline, fragmenting onto Layer 2s. AMMs become increasingly illiquid, and Ethereum ecosystem tokens drop another 70% relative to Bitcoin.
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Influencers promoting shitcoins and/or exchanges with undisclosed allocations in the U.S. may face enforcement actions, setting a precedent for influencer liability and risk in product promotion. Influencer insurance could emerge as a major industry.
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"Traditional" exchanges may experience a revival, triggering a wave of M&A activity in crypto and giving rise to the first crypto "private equity" firms.
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Gensler may be removed before the 2024 election, amid reports that he leaked information about enforcement actions to large U.S. hedge funds.
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Major U.S. trading firms may have had prior knowledge of FTX’s collapse and successfully withdrawn funds before the exchange shut down.
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A large Chicago-based U.S. hedge fund may be banned from trading for one year by the SEC/CFTC due to its activities within a specific protocol.
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Cryptocurrencies may face widespread negative public sentiment ahead of the 2024 election, with Democrats potentially running TV ads portraying crypto investors as supporters of terrorism.
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@InsilicoTrading may account for single-digit percentages of global exchange volume throughout much of 2024, significantly lowering global crypto trading fees.
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FTX 2.0 is likely to face significant failure and struggle to launch successfully.
