TechFlow news, according to Jinshi Data, U.S. Treasury yields declined amid a lack of data capable of weakening market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. David Mericle, economist at Goldman Sachs, said this rate hike could be the last one in the current hiking cycle.
The probability of a U.S. economic recession is lower than what the market expects. Rate cuts are not anticipated to begin until the second quarter of 2024, proceeding at a pace of 25 basis points per quarter, ultimately stabilizing in the 3–3.25% range—higher than the FOMC's dot plot long-term projection of 2.5%.
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