Analysis: US Treasury Yields Rise to Highs, Four Major Risk Factors Weighing on Bitcoin Rebound

According to TechFlow, on July 26, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated in a weekly report analysis that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently rose to about 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.

After Bitcoin rebounded about 11% from the June low of about $59,000 to near $66,000, it has currently retreated to about $64,300. The market is currently facing four potential risks suppressing Bitcoin's rebound simultaneously:

First, volatility has compressed significantly, with July realized volatility decreasing by 31%, indicating that more intense market movements may occur subsequently;

Second, U.S. spot market demand remains persistently weak, with sustained capital inflows not yet appearing;

Third, market buy liquidity is insufficient, stablecoins are continuously flowing out of exchanges, and new fund activity is approaching annual lows;

Fourth, investors are still realizing losses, and during the profit recovery phase, some positions are still choosing to exit, putting pressure on the price.