AI Trading Divergence Intensifies: 30-Day Correlation Between Major US Capex Companies and Semiconductor Index Approaches Zero
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AI Trading Divergence Intensifies: 30-Day Correlation Between Major US Capex Companies and Semiconductor Index Approaches Zero
The Kobeissi Letter stated that data shows significant divergence in AI-themed trading. The 30-day correlation between US companies with the largest capital expenditures and the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) has approached zero, hitting a low of at least 4.5 years, significantly down from 0.78 in April, and also below the average of 0.60 since 2022.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, July 24, Kobeissi Letter stated that data shows AI-themed trading has shown significant divergence. The 30-day correlation between U.S. companies with the largest capital expenditures and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has approached zero, at a low of at least 4.5 years, significantly down from 0.78 in April, and also below the average level of 0.60 since 2022.
This change reflects that since early June, semiconductor stocks have risen, while stock prices of major investors in AI infrastructure have weakened, and the two are no longer viewed by the market as the same type of trade.
The report believes that chip manufacturers still benefit from AI demand growth, while hyperscale cloud service providers face market skepticism regarding the return on their high capital expenditures. In the next phase of AI trading, the core will shift from investment scale to profitability.
