Coinbase Institutional: Q3 2026 Crypto Market Outlook Neutral, Macro Pressure and On-Chain Signals Diverge

TechFlow News, July 24, Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the "Charting Crypto Q3 2026" report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market. The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be shifting from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market prospects.

The report points out that the total market cap of the crypto market excluding stablecoins decreased by about 12% in Q2 2026, meanwhile, stablecoin supply rose to historic highs, reflecting that some funds may have moved into stablecoins as a temporary safe haven rather than completely exiting the crypto market.
Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks continues to decline, with its 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 Index dropping from 0.58 in Q4 2025 to 0.12, while the correlation with gold rose to 0.57, indicating its trading characteristics are closer to store-of-value assets sensitive to interest rates and liquidity.

In terms of capital flows, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs both recorded net outflows in the first half of 2026, but the outflow rate has slowed, suggesting demand may be stabilizing. Regarding Ethereum, the report states it has re-entered the full capitulation zone, and as of the end of Q2, average holders are in a state of unrealized loss.

The report concludes that current macro conditions and on-chain data are sending divergent signals, and the market still needs to remain patient and cautious.