TechFlow news, according to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan's quantitative report on July 16 noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively fallen by about 19% from its high on June 22, but quantitative models show that the digestion of crowding in AI-related sectors is not yet complete. The "AI Bubble Interest Score" tracked by the model remains in the historical highest range; at this level, the probability of SOX falling another 8% or more in the short term exceeds 50%.
JPMorgan provided a quantifiable entry signal: only when the score falls out of the historical highest range is it the time to truly start considering phased entry. Before this, every rebound may be pressed back by panic narratives. For US stock investors, now is not the time to add positions; it is recommended to wait for the window in mid-August, or use put options and defensive sectors to hedge. For A-share investors, domestic AI sector volatility is higher; they can refer to the same logic, wait for clearer right-side signals, and the August earnings period is a key window.
