TechFlow news, according to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in a TMT webcast on July 14 that over the past month, Asian memory stocks retreated 15% to 25%, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting.
Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% higher than consensus, with the earnings season at the end of July being the first verification window; LTA is weakening fears of a cyclical downturn, with the price floor raised after more than half of contracts are locked; YMTC Fab 4 and Fab 5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, NAND supply-demand tightness can extend to 2028; if production expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest risk of oversupply.
Morgan Stanley judges that the pricing logic of memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns, and companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will receive a valuation premium.
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