TechFlow reports, July 16: Market research firm Citrini Research's latest forecast indicates that by 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a large-scale supply shortage, estimated at 28.7EB, accounting for approximately 18% of total demand that year, compared to this year's global total capacity of about 40EB. According to data shared by Citrini researcher Zephyr, global DRAM (including HBM) demand in 2030 is expected to reach 157.5EB, while supply capacity will only be about 128.8EB; among which standard DRAM will be the biggest bottleneck, with estimated supply of about 91EB per year, yet demand reaches as high as 120EB, and the shortage ratio will expand from the current 18% to around 25%.
The report emphasizes that even if Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers continue to expand production, new capacity may still be quickly absorbed by soaring AI demand. The core cause of the supply-demand imbalance lies in the explosion of AI infrastructure, as large model training, inference, and HBM become core to AI accelerators, driving up traditional server DRAM demand along with it. Under tight balance, DRAM average selling price (ASP) may remain high for the long term, expected to fall between $1.5-2 per Gb, and server, PC, and consumer electronics memory costs will continue to be under pressure. (Jin10)
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