TechFlow News, June 23: According to Wintermute’s weekly market report, a significant macroeconomic shift occurred during the week ending June 22. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but its statement adopted markedly hawkish language—removing all references to accommodative policy. The median dot-plot projection rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, and 17 of 18 FOMC members now assess inflation risks as skewed upward. The probability of a December rate hike surged from roughly 24% one month ago to approximately 77%.
Meanwhile, the Iran deal originally scheduled for signing on June 19 collapsed following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, prompting Iran to withdraw from negotiations. Qatar is attempting to extend talks until the end of June. As U.S. equities were closed for Juneteenth and thus unable to react promptly, crypto markets bore the initial brunt: BTC briefly touched a weekly high of $67,000 before retreating to around $62,000—a 3.8% weekly decline; ETH again breached the $2,000 level, falling into the mid-$1,700 range, down 1.2%; approximately $600 million in long positions were liquidated over the weekend, while short liquidations totaled less than $9 million—highlighting persistent leverage imbalance.
Wintermute notes that the narrative around forced selling by “Strategy” (i.e., spot Bitcoin ETFs) has dissipated—net BTC purchases by Strategy totaled 1,587 BTC between June 8 and 14. However, marginal demand from both ETFs and Strategy has notably weakened relative to prior periods, and new capital inflow channels remain unopened. Market stabilization is occurring under light positioning and low leverage—not driven by fresh buying pressure. In the near term, Friday’s PCE data release and developments in Qatar-led negotiations serve as key catalysts. Any rebound would likely represent a tactical trading opportunity rather than signaling a definitive bottom.
