TechFlow News, May 12: Wintermute released its weekly market analysis. For the week ending May 11, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively clearing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic characteristics of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed toward shorts, suggesting further squeeze potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus.
Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: Bitcoin ETFs recorded $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with no single-day net outflows; and BTC reserves on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to follow through after the squeeze concludes, prices face heightened risk of a rapid correction.
On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—demands rejected by Trump—triggering volatile oil price swings between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, though equity markets reacted indifferently. This week’s key events include Tuesday’s CPI data release and Thursday’s leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, as Warsh succeeds Powell amid heightened policy uncertainty.
