TechFlow News, May 12: Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated in his latest article titled “The Butterfly Touch” that the cryptocurrency bull market officially commenced on February 28, 2026—immediately following the U.S. military action against Iran. Bitcoin’s earlier bottom at $60,000 this year is now firmly behind us; with trillions of dollars and yuan in liquidity poised for release, a rebound to $126,000 is “a done deal.” Hayes further predicts that once Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, its upward trajectory will shift into explosive acceleration.
Hayes identifies three structural drivers that will fuel unbridled expansion of fiat credit:
- AI Capital Expenditure Race: Both the U.S. and China view AI dominance as central to national security. As a result, the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China will be compelled to ease financial conditions to support tech giants’ massive CAPEX. Coupled with the “Jevons Paradox” and the “Red Queen Effect,” AI-related spending will grow exponentially;
- War-Driven Inflation: The U.S.-Iran conflict has exposed global supply chains’ dependence on U.S. hegemony. Sovereign nations will progressively divest from dollar-denominated assets and pivot toward infrastructure, defense, and commodity reserves—forcing the U.S. to sustain market stability via dollar swap lines and relaxed banking regulations (e.g., the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, or eSLR);
- Political Will: Ahead of the 2028 U.S. presidential election, the Trump administration will need loose credit policies to maintain electoral momentum—advancing both the “Drill, baby, drill” agenda and a surge of the S&P 500 toward 10,000 points in tandem.
Hayes also revealed that, beyond his existing heavy positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC), his next favored altcoin is NEAR. He previewed an upcoming article detailing how the convergence of “privacy narratives” and “Near Intents” will generate positive cash flow for the protocol. He urged investors to “buy blindly—this is not the time to sell.”
