TechFlow News: On April 15, the Silver Institute maintained its prior forecast in its annual outlook released on Wednesday, projecting that the global silver market will experience a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year. The report forecasts that the supply shortfall in 2026 will widen by 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces. Although demand for silver bars and coins is expected to rise by 18%, industrial, photographic, jewelry, and silverware demand is projected to decline, resulting in an overall consumption drop of 2%. Supply is anticipated to fall by 2%, primarily due to a slight decrease in mine production and reduced hedging activity—though this will be partially offset by a 7% increase in recycling.
The report notes that while the Iran war casts a shadow over short-term price prospects, the Institute retains a “constructive outlook” for silver for the remainder of 2026. It expects the Middle East conflict to remain contained and anticipates that monetary policy tightening aimed at curbing energy-driven inflation will be temporary. Even if the war persists, concerns over sluggish growth and fiscal strain could depress real bond yields, thereby supporting non-yielding precious metals such as silver and gold. The report states: “Combined with a revival of safe-haven demand amid cyclical market liquidations, this should reignite interest in gold and silver.” (Jinshi)
