TechFlow News, April 1: According to a report released by Goldman Sachs analysts, since the outbreak of the war against Iran, market pricing for the U.S. federal funds rate has experienced sharp volatility; however, the likelihood of interest rate hikes this year remains low. The analysts noted that the current supply shock is relatively small in scale and more contained compared to past shocks that triggered inflationary pressures, with oil price increases also smaller than those seen in the 1970s. Furthermore, they stated that “the economy’s starting point makes broad-based inflation spillovers unlikely,” and the current stance of monetary policy further reduces the probability of rate hikes. The analysts emphasized: “The Federal Reserve typically does not implement tightening policies solely in response to oil shocks.” (Jinshi)
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