TechFlow News, March 30: According to on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ (@MorenoDV_), who posted on CryptoQuant, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for BTC is approaching a critical inflection point—but market bottom signals have yet to trigger.
Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply contracted from 58% to just 3% over 142 days, reflecting significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, the LTH-NUPL remains marginally above zero and has not yet entered the full liquidation zone historically required to form a market bottom.
The analyst notes that genuine market bottoms have historically formed only after LTH positions have fully shifted into loss territory. The current environment thus resembles the late-cycle stress phase—not full liquidation. Investors are advised to closely monitor sustained LTH-NUPL breaches below zero, coupled with prolonged price and volatility compression; historically, this confluence of conditions has strongly aligned with asymmetric entry opportunities.
