TechFlow News, January 28: According to JIN10 Data, five major institutions have outlined their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2026 and key focal points of its upcoming meeting as follows:
Barclays
① Rate-cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and December).
② Key view: The FOMC is expected to signal that it is not in a rush to cut rates further. The Committee may note that current downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation have become broadly balanced.
③ Powell’s remarks: He is expected to reinforce the FOMC’s stance that it is not rushing to cut rates.
Bank of America
① Rate-cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and July).
② Key view: Political factors may take center stage at the January meeting. The Fed is expected to maintain the status quo firmly, with the risk balance remaining unchanged.
③ Powell’s remarks: The press conference may focus more on political rather than policy-related issues. That said, from a policy perspective, current market pricing carries a risk of dovish surprises.
Citigroup
① Rate-cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in June and September).
② Key view: If the next rate cut aims at policy normalization—not responding to urgent risks—policymakers may seek broader consensus than was achieved in December last year, which would require clearer progress on inflation.
③ Powell’s remarks: He is likely to emphasize that the three recent rate cuts have helped stabilize the labor market and that the current policy stance is appropriate for assessing their impact.
JPMorgan Chase
① Rate-cut forecast: No rate cuts in 2026.
② Key view: After completing three risk-management-driven rate cuts, many FOMC members have indicated that pausing action is now an appropriate step.
③ Powell’s remarks: He is expected to state that the current policy is sufficient to address risks to the Fed’s dual mandate and will avoid discussing politically sensitive topics involving the Fed.
Wells Fargo
① Rate-cut forecast: A total of 50 basis points (in March and June).
② Key view: A strong argument exists that the longer the FOMC waits to cut rates, the higher the economic threshold becomes for justifying further monetary easing.
③ Powell’s remarks: He is not expected to hint at further easing at the next meeting in March. He is likely to be asked about the Department of Justice investigation, but his response is expected to remain consistent with prior statements.
