TechFlow, December 22 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current crypto market is locked in a state of "undecided direction, time eroding valuation" driven by macro narratives and political uncertainty. On one hand, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times consecutively this year, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%–3.75%, and signaling further room for rate cuts through 2026 in its dot plot. On the other hand, Trump has publicly demanded that the next Fed chair "start cutting rates immediately" and expressed preference for more dovish candidates like Hassett, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. The market is beginning to realize that the interest rate path over the next two years will depend not only on inflation and growth data but also on political developments and Supreme Court rulings regarding tariffs and the authority of independent agencies. This breaks the traditional simplistic logic of "rate cuts = bull market".
Asset pricing has already shown clear divergence: expectations of lower interest rates and currency depreciation have fueled what TD Securities calls a "gold bull cycle"—institutions broadly anticipate gold reaching the $4,400 range in the first half of 2026. In contrast, the U.S. stock market’s so-called "Santa rally" has faltered. The return cycle on AI capital expenditures is being reevaluated, data center projects such as Oracle’s are facing skepticism, and high-valuation tech-heavy stocks are under pressure. Sectors like transportation, financials, and small caps are catching up, with overall indices exhibiting "sector rotation plus range-bound consolidation" rather than smooth upward momentum.
Against this macro backdrop and sentiment, Bitcoin has similarly entered a "range-bound" phase. Glassnode's on-chain and derivatives weekly report shows BTC has recently been largely confined to the $81,000–$89,000 range, repeatedly finding buying support near the lower bound but consistently meeting selling pressure around $90,000—resulting in a structure that is "fragile but not broken." ETF flows continue to see slight net outflows, spot CVD is declining, futures open interest is falling, and funding rates are close to neutral—all pointing to the same reality: not extreme panic, but a lack of incremental confidence. Meanwhile, short-dated options still show downside protection positions, particularly heavy put holdings around $84,000, while bullish interest near $100,000 has somewhat weakened.
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