TechFlow, December 21 — Sean Farrell, Head of Cryptocurrency Strategy at Fundstrat, Tom Lee's firm, responded to claims of a divergence with Tom Lee’s outlook, stating: “Fundstrat has multiple analysts with differing research frameworks and investment time horizons designed to meet the goals of various clients. Tom Lee primarily serves large asset managers and investors allocating 1%–5% of their assets to BTC and ETH, requiring a long-term perspective. My research targets portfolios with high crypto exposure (around 20% or more in crypto assets), adopting a more active strategy that aims to consistently outperform the market across cycles through proactive rebalancing.
My relatively cautious view for the first half reflects risk management rather than outright bearishness. Market pricing currently appears nearly perfect, yet risks remain—government shutdowns, trade volatility, uncertainty around AI capital spending, Federal Reserve leadership transition, tightening high-yield bond spreads, and low cross-asset volatility. Recent capital flows also show divergence. Bitcoin is now in a valuation 'no man’s land.' Long-term, ETF demand should improve as major brokerages join, but near-term pressures include selling by early holders, miner stress, potential MSCI removal of MSTR, and fund redemptions.
My base case: a rebound early in the year, followed by a possible pullback in the first half, creating a more attractive entry point toward year-end. If I’m wrong, I prefer to wait for confirmation signals. For investors following this outlook, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs before year-end, thereby concluding the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, shallower bear market.”
Previous report: Tom Lee publicly bullish on BTC and ETH, while internal forecasts predict a deep correction.
