TechFlow, December 13 — Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as expected this week and sending more dovish signals than anticipated, real-world challenges in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in U.S. stock and bond markets. Reports from the U.S. Department of Labor on non-farm employment, consumer inflation, and retail sales data will be released next week, potentially offering deeper insights into the health of the economy. Below are the key points markets will focus on in the coming week:
- Monday at 21:30, U.S. December New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
- Monday at 22:30, speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman;
- Monday at 23:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks on the economic outlook;
- Tuesday at 21:30, U.S. November unemployment rate, U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. October month-on-month retail sales;
- Wednesday at 22:05, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers opening remarks at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed;
- Thursday at 01:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook;
- Thursday at 21:30, U.S. November unadjusted YoY CPI/Core CPI, U.S. November seasonally adjusted MoM CPI/Core CPI; U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13; U.S. December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
The upcoming U.S. CPI data release will be a critical turning point for the dollar's trajectory. If CPI comes in below expectations (the latest figure is 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it would further validate the rationale for the Fed's easing cycle, potentially putting additional downward pressure on the dollar; otherwise, the trend could reverse.
