TechFlow, Nov 26 — According to Jinshi Data, a report co-authored by Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal journalist known as the "mouthpiece of the Fed," indicates that although rising energy and food costs pushed up wholesale prices in September, certain components included in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge may keep it roughly flat compared to recent months, based on U.S. Labor Department data released Tuesday.
After declining 0.1% month-over-month in August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in September, in line with economists' expectations. PPI figures typically show greater volatility than prices consumers see in stores and online.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% year-over-year—below expectations and the weakest increase since July 2024.
The release of this PPI data came more than a month later than scheduled due to a government shutdown delaying data publication. Two weeks after the impasse ended, federal statistical agencies are still working at full capacity to catch up on backlogged reports.
The U.S. Commerce Department said Monday that the official PCE inflation report is set for release on December 5 (next Friday). Although the September inflation data will already be nearly three months old when the Fed meets on December 9–10, it will still be the most recent official inflation reading available to policymakers weighing interest rate decisions.
The U.S. Labor Department noted that some economic data—including last month’s unemployment rate and consumer inflation figures—cannot be reconstructed retroactively, as they depend on surveys conducted during specific periods. Data on October job growth will be released next month, but after the Fed meeting.
Currently, the Fed's December meeting is expected to be highly contentious. Officials are divided between two options: cutting rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time to cushion a weakening labor market, or holding rates steady to more forcefully address persistent inflation.
