TechFlow news, November 19 — According to QCP Asia's analysis, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000 this week, primarily driven by heightened interest rate expectations and continued outflows from ETFs. This decline highlights BTC's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions and changes in liquidity.
Markets have significantly repriced Federal Reserve expectations, with the probability of a December rate cut downgraded from "almost certain" to "fifty-fifty." Strong AI-driven earnings from mega-cap tech companies have supported equities, leading to relatively weaker performance in the cryptocurrency market.
With the U.S. government reopening and official data陆续 being released, markets are gaining essential insights into the underlying economic momentum. This week, labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which now includes the latest job openings figures, will be closely watched. These indicators will help determine whether tight labor conditions or inflation will drive the Fed's policy response in 2026.
Overall, current conditions appear more indicative of a late-cycle phase rather than a recession. While fiscal constraints and a fragmented labor market pose ongoing risks, strong household balance sheets and resilient corporate capital expenditures continue to cushion downside pressures. This week’s data will determine whether Bitcoin’s pullback reflects temporary position adjustments or the beginning of a broader shift toward risk aversion.
